Backlog at five-year low as Home Office leans on cash-for-returns pilot

The number of asylum cases awaiting an initial decision has fallen to around 35,700, according to the latest figures to March 2026 — the lowest level since 2020 and a fall of roughly 73% from the peak of about 134,000 reached in June 2023.

The reduction in the so-called initial-decision backlog has been one of the few areas where ministers can point to clear movement. Asylum applications themselves edged down to around 76,700 in the year to March 2026, relating to about 93,500 people, while 42% of applications were granted at initial decision in 2025.

But clearing the queue of first decisions does not end the system's pressures: appeals, removals and the cost of accommodating people while their cases are resolved all continue to weigh on the Home Office.

Cash incentives to leave

Central to the government's returns strategy is a pilot launched in March 2026 offering enhanced voluntary-return packages to certain failed asylum-seeker families. Under the scheme, families can be offered £10,000 per person, up to a maximum of £40,000 per household, alongside free flights, to leave the UK voluntarily.

The Home Office said about 150 families were eligible, with sources suggesting the pilot could be expanded to a further thousand families if judged successful. Ministers have justified the payments by pointing to the cost of supporting families in asylum accommodation, which they say can run to as much as £158,000 per family per year.

• Initial-decision backlog down to around 35,700 cases as of March 2026 — lowest since 2020.
• Asylum applications fell to about 76,700 in the year to March 2026, covering some 93,500 people.
• 42% of applications were granted at initial decision in 2025.
• Voluntary-return pilot offers families £10,000 per person, up to £40,000 per household, plus flights.
• About 150 families eligible; potential expansion to a further 1,000 if successful.

Questions over uptake

The headline offer has drawn scrutiny over transparency. The Home Office has not published a clear figure for how many eligible families have actually accepted the package, leaving open the question of whether the financial incentive is changing behaviour at scale or simply restating an option that few take.

Supporters argue that even a modest uptake can save money relative to long-term accommodation costs, and that voluntary departures are cheaper and less contentious than enforced removals. Critics question both the value for money and the ethics of large cash payments, and note that the scheme sits alongside a consultation on how families with children might be forcibly removed in future.

“Supporting families in asylum accommodation can cost up to £158,000 a year. A successful voluntary returns scheme is far better value for the taxpayer.”

Background

The asylum backlog ballooned during 2022 and 2023 as applications rose and decision-making slowed, peaking at well over 130,000 initial-decision cases. Reducing it has been a cross-party priority because each unresolved case carries accommodation and support costs while people wait.

Voluntary returns have long been part of the immigration system, but the scale of the new family payments marks an escalation in financial incentives, reflecting ministers' search for ways to reduce the population in costly accommodation without resorting solely to enforcement.

What happens next: pressure will grow on the Home Office to publish uptake figures for the voluntary-returns pilot, while attention turns to whether the falling initial-decision backlog can be sustained as appeals and removals become the system's next bottleneck.